Authored by: Dave Rowe
Volkswagen ("VW") has had an active October and November, marked by announcements of a new joint venture with Rivian, plans to circumvent its U.S. dealer network by retailing Scout EVs directly to consumers, and the news that VW is in discussions with Penske to form a U.S. distribution model for its Cupra brand. These developments raise questions about VW’s strategy in the U.S. and send mixed messages to its dealer network.
Scout Direct-to-Consumer Model: A Troubling Decision for Dealers
Starting with Scout, VW’s decision is disappointing and sends a troubling message to its dealers. This announcement was not a surprise, as Scout CEO Scott Keogh had deflected questions about the brand’s retail strategy for years. His silence stirred concern among VW dealers, who desperately need fresh, innovative products to boost sales.
There are simply too many VW dealers, given the number of vehicles the franchise sells. The reintroduction of Scout was an excellent opportunity to both increase throughput within the channel and allow dealers to retail a product that would generate meaningful front-end gross profit. VW dealers have long struggled with throughput. The average VW dealer in the U.S. currently retails 48 new vehicles per month. In comparison, throughput at competing brands is considerably higher: Kia at 81 new units, Honda at 98, Subaru at 86, and Mazda at 62 units per month, as reported through Q3 2024 LTM. The result is that dealership profits at VW stores are much lower than those of competing brands. When profits are low, it is difficult for dealers to provide the best facilities and retain top staff to serve customers. This creates challenges not only for dealers but also for VW, as a weak dealer network hinders its ability to compete, even when its products are comparable in style and quality.

VW’s decision to sell the Scout directly to consumers is already creating dissatisfaction within its U.S. dealer network. Automotive News reports that the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) and dealers are planning state-by-state challenges to VW’s plan. Most dealers are protected by state franchise laws prohibiting OEMs from selling directly to consumers or competing with their dealers. A byproduct of this decision is that VW dealers—already struggling with profitability—are now even less likely to invest capital, people, and time into a brand whose leadership prefers to circumvent them entirely.
Dealers already have the infrastructure to sell and service Scout vehicles. Yet, on top of the cost of developing a new product, VW plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to open dedicated retail spaces, develop technology, and hire people to sell and service vehicles. This move sends a puzzling message to its dealers: VW is willing to compete with its own dealer network and make massive investments to do so.
Cupra and Penske Partnership: Further Mixed Signals
Adding to the confusion, VW is reportedly in preliminary discussions with the Penske Automotive Group to distribute its Cupra brand in the U.S. market. Cupra is based in Spain and shows four models on its website. The nature of the relationship they are discussing is unclear – would Cupra sell vehicles in the U.S. only through Penske stores in certain markets? Would Penske operate as a distributor within the VW dealer network, like Gulf States Toyota or Southeast Toyota? Or would Penske be a distributor to a new network of dealers? Until these questions are answered, VW dealers are left wondering whether VW values their contributions or is experimenting with different models at their expense.
Lessons from Other Entrants in the Market
Let’s compare VW’s decisions for Scout and Cupra with the strategies of other new entrants in the industry. INEOS, a newly formed manufacturer of SUVs, introduced the Grenadier to the U.S. auto market less than a year ago and has had great initial success by embracing the traditional franchise distribution model. INEOS attracted some of the best auto retail groups in the country, such as Sewell and Holman. Fisker, another new entrant, unsuccessfully tried the direct-to-consumer model, which likely contributed to its demise. Other examples of OEMs creating or reviving new brands include Toyota’s Scion brand, which was sold through existing Toyota dealerships, and Genesis, Hyundai’s luxury line, which has been far more successful due to its dealer network. Tesla initially found success with its direct-to-consumer model but is now struggling without the support of a U.S. dealer network. (See our Letter to Elon recommending he embrace the franchise system.)
Rivian Joint Venture: More Questions Than Answers
Meanwhile, VW’s announced joint venture (JV) with Rivian raises further questions at a time when most automakers are scaling back EV plans and instead investing in hybrid powertrains. VW will invest $5.8 billion in Rivian and take a 50% stake in a new JV known as Rivian and VW Group Technology. The companies say Rivian will benefit from an influx of capital and VW’s scaled manufacturing and assembly operations, while VW will gain access to Rivian’s software and innovative EV design architecture.
The long-term effect of this JV on U.S. dealers is uncertain, but it’s fair to question whether VW would be better served by investing in hybrid powertrains for the U.S. market instead. The timing of this JV may also allow VW to benefit from Rivian’s experiences with its direct-to-consumer platform. Although neither company has indicated this is a factor in VW’s investment, VW dealers may feel even more apprehensive as VW partners with an OEM that does not embrace a dealer network.
Conclusion
With its announcements regarding Scout, the Rivian joint venture, and now the Cupra-Penske discussions, VW appears to be approaching the U.S. market without a consistent dealer strategy. If VW wants to succeed in the U.S. market, it must align its strategies with a clear, consistent vision that supports and leverages its dealer network.
To learn more about these insights and trends in auto retail impacting dealership values or to have a confidential conversation regarding your business, contact Dave Rowe at Dave@HaigPartners.com.
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