Source: The Q4 2025 Haig Report®
After a strong finish to 2025, the auto retail industry has entered 2026 with softer momentum. While last year demonstrated resilience across both OEMs and dealers, early indicators suggest a more uncertain path ahead for new vehicle sales.
For dealership owners and operators, understanding the trajectory of SAAR and the underlying drivers behind it will be critical to navigating the year ahead.


A Strong 2025 Sets a High Bar
New vehicle sales reached 16.2 million units in 2025, a notable achievement given the challenges facing the industry. Supply chain disruptions, affordability concerns, and shifting consumer demand did not prevent dealers from delivering a solid year.
However, that strength has created tougher comparisons for 2026, where early results have been less encouraging.
Early 2026 Weakness: Temporary or Structural?
The year began with softer showroom traffic, influenced in part by severe winter weather across the East, Northeast, and Midwest. While this has clearly impacted short-term sales, broader trends suggest additional pressure points at play.
Recent SAAR performance highlights the slowdown:
- Q3 2025 SAAR: 16.4M
- Q4 2025 SAAR: 15.6M following the expiration of federal EV incentives and continued affordability challenges
- January 2026: Lowest monthly SAAR since January 2024
- February 2026: 15.8M, down 0.4M year-over-year
This sequence indicates that the slowdown began before weather disruptions, pointing to more fundamental demand headwinds.
2026 SAAR Outlook: A More Conservative View
Cox Automotive currently estimates 2026 SAAR at 15.8 million units, representing a 2.4% decline from 2025. This stands as one of the more conservative forecasts in the market.
More broadly, expectations for 2026 U.S. demand are clustering around approximately 16.0 million units, reflecting a flat to slightly down year-over-year outlook.
While demand remains present, its composition is shifting. There is material pent-up demand in the market, but it is increasingly concentrated at price points below $50,000. This dynamic reinforces the growing importance of affordability in driving showroom traffic and closing rates.
At the same time, the balance of risks appears skewed to the downside for now. Although there are both positive and negative forces at play, current conditions suggest a more cautious operating environment for dealers.
Key Drivers Supporting Sales
Despite the softer start, several factors could provide support as the year progresses:
- Lower interest rates compared to 2025, with one to two additional rate cuts expected
- Higher tax refunds, which may boost consumer purchasing power
- Increased OEM focus on affordability across vehicle lineups
- Meaningful pent-up demand, particularly for mass market vehicles
These tailwinds could help stabilize sales as the year unfolds, especially if macroeconomic conditions improve.
Risks That Could Weigh on Demand
At the same time, dealers must remain mindful of several risks that could further pressure SAAR:
- Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East
- Potential disruption from upcoming USMCA negotiations affecting production and supply chains
- Signs of labor market stress
- The loss of federal EV incentives, which had previously supported demand
- Persistent affordability challenges for consumers
The combination of these factors creates a more complex operating environment than what dealers experienced in 2025.
What This Means for Dealership Owners
While SAAR remains historically healthy, the shift from growth to modest contraction has meaningful implications:
- Expect more competitive pricing environments as OEMs and dealers work to maintain volume
- Inventory management and cost control will become increasingly important
- Franchise performance may diverge further based on affordability positioning and consumer demand trends
- Strategic planning should account for both downside risks and potential rate-driven upside
In short, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where execution matters more than momentum.
The Bottom Line
The auto retail industry is not entering a downturn, but it is transitioning into a more normalized and potentially volatile phase. Dealers who adapt quickly to changing demand patterns and macro conditions will be best positioned to outperform.
For a deeper analysis of SAAR trends, dealership valuations, and the broader buy-sell market, we encourage you to explore the full report.
Download and read the full Q4 2025 Haig Report® for comprehensive insights.
Additional Resources
Brett Morgan on Success and Succession in the Family Business - Morgan Automotive Group
Automotive News Buy-Sell Q&A
Dealership Buy-Sell Expert Q&A - "Value of Buying vs. Benefit of Selling Dealerships"
Dealership Buy-Sell Expert Q&A - "How to Set a Record: Anatomy of a Deal that Delivered"
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How Interest Rates Are Reducing Dealership’s Newest Profit Centers
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Valuing Dealerships in Uncertain Times
Future Proof Your Dealership: Delegating & Remaining in Control
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A Journey of Legacy and Passion: Jack and Robin Salzman’s Road from Car Dealerships to New Horizons
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Not Just Inheriting—Creating: Brett Morgan’s Path into Auto Retail
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Q1 2025 Haig Report®: A Moment of Clarity in a Market of Contradictions
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Inside California Auto Retail: EV Policy, Legal Reform, and the Franchise Model — A Conversation with Brian Maas of CNCDA
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