Insights from John Murphy, Managing Director, Strategic Advisory, presented at the Haig Partners Maximizing Value Conference held alongside the Toyota and Ford National Dealer Meetings (Sept. 2025).
If you are interested in listening to the full discussion, a recording is available for listening and viewing here. Slides from the presentation can be downloaded here.
Overview
John Murphy opened with a simple promise: use rigorous analysis to help dealers maximize value. Drawing on decades covering automakers, suppliers, and dealers, his message centered on the three levers every owner lives by—demand, supply, and pricing—and how today’s “wild cards” (policy, rates, tariffs, EV/AV dynamics, and China) shape profitability, valuations, and M&A opportunities. Most importantly, he outlined a practical path to structurally higher, more stable profits that can command better multiples when you sell—or help you compound value if you keep buying.
Bottom line: The industry backdrop remains constructive, with clear opportunities for dealers who lean into entry-level mix where available, prepare for continuing tight late-model used supply, and execute a deliberate strategy to capture more of the post-sale profit pool.
Demand: Replacement Cycles Still Matter—And May Lift SAAR
Murphy emphasized the capital goods replacement cycle as a core driver of auto demand. After the 2008–2009 downturn, he became bullish when he observed the U.S. vehicle base shrinking for the first time while miles driven remained resilient. That signal proved right—and the same logic still applies.
- Trend demand sits in the 16–17 million range, with pent-up demand building whenever we undershoot.
- A potential next peak around 2028 could reach ~18 million units if automakers deliver more entry-level vehicles. Without that lower price-point mix, demand could stall closer to 16–17 million.
- Affordability concerns are real, but many analyses understate trade-in equity, which remains a partial offset.
- Consumer confidence has diverged from sales: if you looked at confidence alone, you’d expect 11–13 million SAAR; yet ~16 million is achievable. Today’s new-vehicle buyer is a smaller, better-heeled segment with equity in trades.
Implication for dealers: When OEMs ship truly affordable models, be ready to take share—brands with robust entry-level lineups (e.g., Toyota/Honda/Hyundai/Kia profiles mentioned) are poised to win volume without relying on price cuts.
Supply: Inventories “OK,” Late-Model Used Will Stay Tight
Supply has multiple layers that matter for profits:
- Front-end inventory: Dealer lots historically carried 3.0–3.5 million units; after the COVID shock low near 1.0 million, we’re ~2.6 million—reasonable in aggregate, with wide brand dispersion (e.g., Toyota very tight; Ford closer to normal; some others heavy).
- The U.S. vehicle parc: Roughly 280 million vehicles on the road, average age a bit over 12. The 0–3 and 4–7 year cohorts will keep shrinking as a share (and likely in absolute terms) into 2026–2027.
- Result: sourcing late-model used remains challenging well into ’27–’28 unless new-vehicle sales surge.
- Installed capacity vs. behavior: North American capacity utilization ~70% would have implied an OEM profit “bloodbath” in the old days. Post-COVID, OEMs learned that producing less can earn more, emphasizing mix and price rather than volume at any cost.
Implication for dealers: Expect continued tightness in desirable late-model used—reinforcing gross retention. On the new side, inventory risk is brand-specific; align acquisition, pricing, and marketing to each OEM’s stance.
Pricing: Sticky on New, Constructive on Used
- New-vehicle ATPs have been holding relatively flat; incentives ~7.3% of gross price recently, with some moderation.
- If OEMs want to grow the market, mix (more entry-level) is the likely lever—not broad price cutting.
- Used-vehicle pricing should remain supported: miles driven eclipsed pre-COVID levels on a 12-month basis, underpinning demand, while supply of late-model used stays scarce.
Implication for dealers: Maintain disciplined new-vehicle pricing, prioritize inventory mix, and lean into used gross where supply scarcity and miles-driven tailwinds bolster values.
Wild Cards: Policy, Rates, Tariffs, EVs/AVs, and China
Murphy cataloged the biggest swing factors and how they filter to the store level:
- Regulatory reset: The prior emissions/fuel-economy mandates and carbon-policy thrust were wiped clean, which is constructive for now.
- Rates: Expected to begin moving down, helping monthly payments.
- Tax: 100% first-year expensing for vehicles is supportive, particularly on the commercial side.
- Geopolitics: Resolution would help macro confidence; tariffs remain a headwind, roughly $1k–$2k on U.S.-built vehicles and $4k–$5k on imports—about a $2,500 industry headwind across the chain, with unclear absorption vs. pass-through.
EVs & Leasing
- The $7,500 incentive going away triggers a near-term “clear-out”. That’s rational—but leased EVs return in 18–48 months, potentially disrupting used markets later.
- Leasing likely recovers toward mid-20% overall (luxury still 50%+), given better residual behavior in many segments, easing payments as rates fall.
- EV residuals remain a concern; in other markets, 4–5-year EVs have shown materially lower residuals than traditional norms.
AVs
- AV adoption should skew fleet-first (rideshare, taxi), likely increasing miles driven and service opportunity, rather than near-term displacement of owner-operators.
China’s “Tectonic Shift”
- Production in China exceeds local sales, pushing exports to keep utilization near 80%.
- Net exports rose to ~5 million units in 2024 and could reach ~6 million this year. Ex-U.S./China, the global market is ~50 million units, so that export surge is a ~10% supply shock into markets where those vehicles can land—pressuring OEM profitability worldwide.
- Mexico now imports ~40% of its sales from China—the competition is on our doorstep.
- Expect OEMs to lean harder into the U.S. for profits. That may be good or bad for dealers depending on how each brand competes—pay attention.
Implication for dealers: Plan for lease-driven payment advantages, monitor EV residual risk in appraisal and remarketing, and track brand-by-brand China responses—these will influence allocations, incentives, and long-term brand health in your market.
The Big Prize: Capture the Post-Sale Profit Pool
Murphy’s most important framework splits value after the vehicle is sold:
- Franchised dealers (annual): ~$1.2T revenue / $55B operating profit
- Rest of the vehicle lifecycle (annual): another ~$1.2T revenue / ~$135B operating profit
Dealers currently capture <40% of the service opportunity in a vehicle’s first three years. That’s a massive gap—and a massive opportunity.
Why OEMs will care (and help):
- For major automakers, 10–20% of ongoing EBIT often comes from aftermarket parts. If dealers double service penetration, OEMs can ** materially lift EBIT**, while dealers can grow profits ~50% structurally by extending service retention into years 3–7–10 and building tighter loops with second/third owners.
How to unlock it:
- Leverage connected-car diagnostics, better proactive outreach, and integrated service, F&I, and insurance funnels.
- Address tech shortages and right-to-repair issues in partnership with OEMs.
- Expand used-to-new flywheel economics—2:1 used-to-new volume ratios can amplify service lanes and F&I.
Why it matters for valuation:
Smoothing cyclicality is gold. If you extend service retention and build durable used volume, your store’s earnings become more stable. Capital markets reward stability with higher multiples and lower cost of capital, making facility investments and acquisitions more attractive—and improving outcomes when you eventually sell.
M&A Outlook: Finite Points, Rising Attention, and the Case for Consolidation
Murphy expects growing interest from family offices and private equity as investors better understand the strength and stability of dealership earnings. With a finite—and potentially shrinking—number of points, and a credible path to higher profits, the asset class looks increasingly compelling. That dynamic, combined with OEMs refocusing on profitable core business, sets the stage for more consolidation and rationalization that can be good for well-positioned operators.
What Dealers Should Do Now
- Prepare for entry-level mix: When OEMs deliver, be first to merchandise, finance, and market it.
- Own late-model used despite scarcity: Tighten sourcing, reconditioning speed/quality, and turn discipline to protect gross.
- Double down on service retention (years 0–3, then 3–7–10): Build connected-car and lifecycle programs that pull vehicles back to your lanes; integrate F&I and insurance.
- Manage EV and lease risk pragmatically: Use lease structures to support affordability; be conservative on EV residuals and future off-lease supply.
- Track brand strategies vs. China & tariffs: Allocate capital toward brands executing well on product cadence, price-mix discipline, and network health.
- Think like a seller—even when you’re buying: Moves that stabilize earnings today expand multiples tomorrow. That’s how you maximize value.
Haig Partners: Your Partner in Maximizing Value
Murphy chose Haig Partners because of its entrepreneurial platform and deep relationships across dealers, buy-sell markets, and OEMs. Our team is focused on helping owners navigate macro shifts, improve profit structure, and capture premium valuations—whether your next chapter is growth through acquisition or a well-timed exit.
We’ll continue to bring actionable brand-level and market analyses to help you identify which stores to buy, which to avoid, and how to operate for higher, steadier profits.
Note: John also previewed our next “Maximizing Value” gathering planned for early February at the Wynn ahead of NADA, where we’ll go deeper on brand-specific opportunities and operating playbooks. We hope to see you there.
This article was developed exclusively from Maximizing Value Conference Succession Planning Panel discussion and is proprietary to Haig Partners.
Additional Resources
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Dealers Enter 2026 with Healthier Inventory Levels - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Trends Shaping Auto Retail in 2026 - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Q4 2025 Haig Report®: Luxury & Midline Import Brands Lead Sales Growth in 2025
Q4 2025 Haig Report®: New Vehicle Affordability Trends and What They Mean for Dealers
Audi at a Crossroads: Valuation, Performance, and What Comes Next - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Vehicle Pricing Divergence Across Brands - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Q4 2025 Haig Report® - New Car Throughput: Winners & Losers Since 2019
NY Automotive Forum 2026: What It Means for Dealers Today
Q4 2025 Haig Report®: New Vehicle Profits Slip as Market Normalizes
Used Vehicle Profits Hold Steady in a Tight Market - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Q4 2025 Haig Report®: Franchise Valuations Show Diverging Paths Across Brands
F&I Profits Near Record Levels as Product Penetration Strengthens - Insights from the Q4 2025 Haig Report®
Q4 2025 Haig Report®: Fixed Operations Gross Profit Rose in 2025
