The U.S. auto retail industry is entering 2026 from a position of strength.
While dealership profits have normalized from the record highs of the pandemic era, demand for dealerships remains robust, values are still historically elevated, and the buy-sell market continues to gain momentum.
In the latest Q4 2025 Haig Report®, we see a clear shift. The market is no longer driven by supply constraints, but by execution, brand strength, and scale. Dealers who adapt to this environment will continue to perform at a high level.
A Strong Industry, Even as Profits Normalize
Auto retail continues to prove its resilience. New vehicle sales reached 16.2 million units in 2025, a strong result given affordability challenges, tariff pressures, and broader economic uncertainty.
At the same time, dealership earnings remain historically strong. The average publicly owned dealership generated $4.1 million in adjusted pre-tax income, slightly higher than the prior year.
What has changed is not the strength of the industry, but the source of profitability.
Front-end margins have declined and used vehicle profits remain compressed. In their place, more traditional profit drivers are taking the lead again.
Today’s earnings are being driven by:
- Strong performance in F&I
- Growth in fixed operations
- More disciplined expense management
This shift marks a return to a more normalized, but still highly attractive, operating environment.
Dealership Values Remain High, with a Clear Shift Toward Quality
Even as profits stabilize, dealership values remain well above pre-pandemic levels. The average blue sky value increased to $19.0 million in 2025, continuing to reflect strong investor demand.
However, the market is becoming more selective.
Buyers are no longer chasing every opportunity. Instead, they are focusing on the highest-quality assets, creating a widening gap between top-performing dealerships and the rest.
The most in-demand dealerships today tend to have:
- High throughput and scale
- Strong, proven franchises
- Consistent fixed operations income
- Limited future capital requirements
At the same time, smaller stores and underperforming franchises are facing more scrutiny, particularly as financing becomes more constrained for certain buyers.
This “flight to quality” is defining today’s valuation environment.
Franchise Multiples: A Market of Clear Leaders and Strategic Opportunities
Franchise strength remains one of the most important drivers of dealership value, and the divergence between brands continues to grow.
Luxury brands such as Lexus, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW continue to command the highest multiples, supported by strong customer demand, brand equity, and consistent profitability.
Toyota remains the benchmark among import brands, combining scale, margins, and strong factory relationships. Honda and Subaru also continue to deliver stable and predictable performance.
At the same time, several franchises are navigating more challenging conditions tied to product cadence and strategic direction. Nissan, Volkswagen, and Stellantis remain under pressure, while Audi is widely viewed as being near a cyclical low with potential upside as new products are introduced.
What this means for dealers:
- Brand selection is increasingly impacting valuation outcomes
- Top-tier franchises continue to attract premium pricing
- Certain brands may present turnaround or acquisition opportunities
- The valuation gap between brands is widening
Buy-Sell Activity Accelerates and Signals Continued Confidence
One of the clearest indicators of industry strength is the buy-sell market.
After a slower start to the year, activity accelerated in the second half of 2025, with a total of 616 dealerships sold. That figure is roughly 50% higher than pre-pandemic averages and reflects continued confidence from both public and private buyers.
Larger dealer groups remain focused on growth through acquisition, particularly targeting high-volume stores and strong franchises. At the same time, smaller buyers are pursuing more opportunistic acquisitions, including smaller or distressed assets.
Key trends shaping today’s M&A market:
- Continued consolidation across the industry
- Strong demand for high-quality dealerships
- Strategic portfolio optimization by larger groups
- Ongoing opportunities for both buyers and sellers
For dealers considering a sale, the current environment continues to offer an opportunity to achieve historically strong valuations.
Profitability is Shifting Back to Fundamentals
The industry is transitioning away from peak-era margins and returning to a more traditional profit structure.
New vehicle gross profits have declined, and used vehicle margins remain under pressure due to supply dynamics. However, this does not signal weakness. Instead, it reflects normalization.
The most reliable sources of profit today are the areas that have always defined strong operators.
The core drivers of profitability moving forward:
- F&I performance at near-record levels
- Fixed operations supported by an aging vehicle fleet
- Service and parts growth as vehicles stay on the road longer
Dealers who invest in these areas will be best positioned to maintain strong earnings.
What Dealers Should Watch in 2026
While the industry remains strong, several factors will shape performance in the year ahead.
Economic conditions are stabilizing, with inflation moderating and potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. At the same time, risks remain, including affordability challenges and potential changes in trade policy.
Key themes to watch:
- Continued pressure on vehicle affordability
- The growing importance of fixed operations and F&I
- Ongoing consolidation among dealership groups
- Potential policy and trade developments impacting costs
Despite these factors, the outlook remains positive, with sales expected to remain near current levels.
Key Takeaways for Dealers
The message from this quarter’s report is clear: the industry is normalizing, but it remains strong and highly attractive.
The most important takeaways:
- Dealership profits are stabilizing at historically strong levels
- Blue sky values remain elevated and well above pre-COVID norms
- Buyers are increasingly focused on high-quality assets
- Franchise selection has a growing impact on valuation
- The buy-sell market remains active and competitive
- Fixed ops and F&I are critical to long-term profitability
What This Means for Dealers
Auto retail continues to be one of the most attractive industries for long-term investors.
Even as the market becomes more competitive, the fundamentals remain strong. Dealers who focus on execution, scale, and brand positioning will continue to generate strong profits and command premium valuations.
The environment has changed, but the opportunity remains.
Download the Full Q4 2025 Haig Report®
The complete Q4 2025 Haig Report® provides a more detailed analysis of the trends shaping dealership performance, valuation, and M&A activity. It offers the comprehensive data and insights that ownership teams, investors, and industry professionals rely on each quarter.
Additional Resources
Brett Morgan on Success and Succession in the Family Business - Morgan Automotive Group
Automotive News Buy-Sell Q&A
Dealership Buy-Sell Expert Q&A - "Value of Buying vs. Benefit of Selling Dealerships"
Dealership Buy-Sell Expert Q&A - "How to Set a Record: Anatomy of a Deal that Delivered"
Dealership Profits Dropping - But Values Remain Strong
How Interest Rates Are Reducing Dealership’s Newest Profit Centers
Keeping or Selling: How to Build Value in Your Business
Competing With National Retailers and Consolidators
Valuing Dealerships in Uncertain Times
Future Proof Your Dealership: Delegating & Remaining in Control
Deciding to Sell or Stay - Consider Doing Both
Future-Proofing Your Dealership
Next Gen: Empire Builders vs. Caretakers
The Value Of An M&A Advisor
Keep or Sell: Determining the Best Strategy
What Family Businesses Must Do To Compete Now and In the Future
Choosing the Right Advisor: Buy-Sell Advisors Add Value to the Sales Process
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